Ahead of the US jobs report on Friday, survey data signalled that the labour market remained solid into the end of the year.
Market consensus pointed to non-farm payroll gains of 171,000 in December from 199,000 in November. Growth over the past few months had been affected by strike action to the tune of approximately 30,000. The unemployment rate is expected to have ticked up a tenth to 3.8%. Wages are forecast to remain steady at 0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y.
“In the details, we anticipate continued weakness in the information/tech and finance sectors, while government jobs likely stayed perky (note that the government has contributed 64k jobs on average to payrolls every month since July),” posited TDS Securities in a note.
Morgan Stanley’s Sam Coffin warned that December seasonal factors could add an element of jeopardy with an expected increase in retail and transport payrolls. He added that weather-sensitive industries like construction could show some slight benefit from continued balmy weather. “Early December was unseasonably warm, even more so than early November. We factor in a modest boost to December construction payrolls.”
Analysts underlined Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the December FOMC press conference, where he said the labour market had shown substantial progress on coming into better balance. “He cited surveys of businesses, labour force participation, job openings, quits and slowing jobs growth, as data points supporting this view,” Deutsche Bank’s Brett Ryan noted.
The November JOLTS report intimated that the labour market had continued to cool heading into the final month of the year with job openings down 62,000 in November to 8.790mln from 8.85mln albeit above the consensus estimate.
Deutsche Bank’s Brett forecast 150,000 versus 199,000 previously with private payrolls at 130,000. The economist said the forecasts mainly reflected an unwind from the returning auto workers boost in the November data. “However, there is some upside risk as there seems to be some residual seasonality with hiring for couriers and messengers spiking in December, at least pre-pandemic. While such an increase was not evident in 2021 or 2022, we feel the risk is worth flagging.”
Bank Estimates
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- Employment growth set to slow in December
- Latest JOLTS report suggests conditions remain solid
- Seasonal factors to add element of jeopardy – analysts
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
04 January 2024 | 11:30 GMT
Ahead of the US jobs report on Friday, survey data signalled that the labour market remained solid into the end of the year.
Market consensus pointed to non-farm payroll gains of 171,000 in December from 199,000 in November. Growth over the past few months had been affected by strike action to the tune of approximately 30,000. The unemployment rate is expected to have ticked up a tenth to 3.8%. Wages are forecast to remain steady at 0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y.
“In the details, we anticipate continued weakness in the information/tech and finance sectors, while government jobs likely stayed perky (note that the government has contributed 64k jobs on average to payrolls every month since July),” posited TDS Securities in a note.
Morgan Stanley’s Sam Coffin warned that December seasonal factors could add an element of jeopardy with an expected increase in retail and transport payrolls. He added that weather-sensitive industries like construction could show some slight benefit from continued balmy weather. “Early December was unseasonably warm, even more so than early November. We factor in a modest boost to December construction payrolls.”
Analysts underlined Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the December FOMC press conference, where he said the labour market had shown substantial progress on coming into better balance. “He cited surveys of businesses, labour force participation, job openings, quits and slowing jobs growth, as data points supporting this view,” Deutsche Bank’s Brett Ryan noted.
The November JOLTS report intimated that the labour market had continued to cool heading into the final month of the year with job openings down 62,000 in November to 8.790mln from 8.85mln albeit above the consensus estimate.
Deutsche Bank’s Brett forecast 150,000 versus 199,000 previously with private payrolls at 130,000. The economist said the forecasts mainly reflected an unwind from the returning auto workers boost in the November data. “However, there is some upside risk as there seems to be some residual seasonality with hiring for couriers and messengers spiking in December, at least pre-pandemic. While such an increase was not evident in 2021 or 2022, we feel the risk is worth flagging.”